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Monday
Mar022009

Predicting the technology future

In a crowd of emerging prediction market sites asking all sorts of frivolous pop culture questions of their participants, Nostradamical chooses to ask an interesting one: What will be the key milestones in computing technology over the next few years?

To think about this question, they first explore the past 100 years through the technology prediction market questions that would have been: Will Apple make phones?(2007) Will the Sony Walkman just be a teenage fad? (1977) Is there money in microchips? (1969)

Unfortunately, since Nostradamical's model is to allow its members to submit their own markets, the actual technology markets are often somewhat silly and poorly formed, e.g., Will AOL continue to worsen and die? Power.com won't succed (sic) in 2009. I would like to see Nostradamical moderate the site a bit more and even create "official" markets suggested by the site owners.

Still, the site is fun, intuitive, and creates a stronger sense of a "predicting" community than many of its competitors. It integrates a Digg-like function of moving interesting predictions to the top and an (somewhat) incentivizing pyramid scheme for top predictors to work their way to the top to become "oracles." You can join the conversation with their most popular prediction: Will Apple announce their own search engine in 2009?

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