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Saturday
Jun062009

Intrade was right -- "worst case" unemployment projections too rosy

The latest unemployment figures put the U.S. rate at 9.4%. That puts already above the peak of the government's "baseline scenario" used to "stress test" the nation's bank.

Here's a great chart from Calculated Risk comparing the government's scenarios for unemployment rate and the observed rate.

The Intrade market was more pessimistic. As we wrote back in early May, participants gave a 60% chance than unemployment would pass the 10% mark by December 2009. The prediction market saw through the softball predictions of the government.

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